A constancy assumption implies that what has been true in the past will be true in the future, or that what is true here, in this situation, is also true there, in the same situation. We tend to regard constancy assumptions as more factual when they've been valid for longer periods, or when they've been validated in more places. That is, the more examples we have of their validity, the more likely we are to regard them as facts, rather than assumptions.
And that's when we're at risk of making big mistakes. Constancy assumptions are usually subject to defects related to context. For example, when we apply the brakes on a bicycle, our experience is that the bicycle will slow and eventually stop. At least, this has happened so many times that we expect it will always happen. But on icy roads, or rainy days, or when the bicycle has just gone through a puddle, the brakes might not be so effective. Our constancy assumption might be violated.
Some constancy assumptions are more likely to be invalidated as the number of examples of validity increases. For example, when people are required to accept yet another year of inadequate pay raises, their tolerance is tested each year, but they generally accept paltry increases. Eventually, though, the level of pay falls far enough below their needs, or below what other employers offer, and their acquiescence ends. Those employees who are the most attractive to other employers then find employment elsewhere.
Here are some examples of constancy assumptions that are sometimes inappropriately regarded as facts.
- Productivity rates
- Estimating the person hours required to execute projects is a delicate art. We try to convert art into science by collecting and using experience data, but that data can be misleading. For example, when our workforce ages even by a few years, the demands of home life can change, and those changes affect productivity.
- Personal trustworthiness
- When personal circumstances change, people make different choices and change their alliances, We tend to regard constancy assumptions
as more factual when their pasts
are longer, or when they've been
validated in more placesnot because their values change, but because their goals and tactics do. Somebody you distrusted last year might be trustworthy this year, and vice versa.
- Supervisory relationships
- Cultivating a strong relationship with your supervisor is almost always worthwhile, but reorganization or a change of supervisor can nearly erase that investment overnight.
- The value of annual compensation
- In most national economies, inflation is slow but steady, and it erodes everyone's compensation. Other sources of compensation erosion are pay cuts, layoffs, and benefits reductions. Assuming that compensation is constant or increasing is probably risky. Save.
Perhaps the most widespread constancy assumption concerns the possibility or necessity of finding a new job. People tend to assume that their current positions will endure. They stay in their jobs, often unhappy and underpaid, rather than exploring opportunities elsewhere, until too late. Are you among their number? Top Next Issue
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More articles on Critical Thinking at Work:
- The Mind Reading Trap
- When we think, "Paul doesn't trust me," we could be fooling ourselves into believing that
we can read his mind. Unless he has directly expressed his distrust, we're just guessing, and we can
reach whatever conclusion we wish, unconstrained by reality. In project management, as anywhere else,
that's a recipe for trouble.
- If Only I Had Known: I
- Have you ever regretted saying something that you wouldn't have said if only you had known just one
more little fact? Yeah, me too. We all have. Here are some tips for dealing with this sticky situation.
- Unintended Consequences
- Sometimes, when we solve problems, the solutions create new problems that can be worse than the problems
we solve. Why does this happen? How can we limit this effect?
- A Review of Performance Reviews: The Checkoff
- As practiced in most organizations, performance reviews, especially annual performance reviews, are
toxic both to the organization and its people. A commonly used tool, the checkoff, is especially deceptive.
- On the Risk of Undetected Issues: II
- When things go wrong and remain undetected, trouble looms. We continue our efforts, increasing investment
on a path that possibly leads nowhere. Worse, time — that irreplaceable asset — passes.
How can we improve our ability to detect undetected issues?
Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout
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- People who behave narcissistically tend to regard themselves as special. They systematically place their own interests and welfare ahead of anyone or anything else. In this part of the series we consider how this claimed specialness affects the organization and its people. Available here and by RSS on March 21.
- And on March 28: Narcissistic Behavior at Work: IV
- Narcissistic behavior at work is more damaging than rudeness or egotism. It leads to faulty decisions that compromise organizational missions. In this part of the series we examine the effects of constant demands for attention and admiration. Available here and by RSS on March 28.
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- The Power Affect: How We Express Our Personal Power
- Many people who possess real organizational power have a characteristic demeanor. It's the way they project their presence. I call this the power affect. Some people — call them power pretenders — adopt the power affect well before they attain significant organizational power. Unfortunately for their colleagues, and for their organizations, power pretenders can attain organizational power out of proportion to their merit or abilities. Understanding the power affect is therefore important for anyone who aims to attain power, or anyone who works with power pretenders. Read more about this program.