Spreadsheet Models for Managers


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ISpreadsheet Models for Managersf you use Excel to model businesses, business processes, or business transactions, this course will change your life. You'll learn how to create tools for yourself that will amaze even you. Unrestricted use of this material is available in two ways.

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Spreadsheet Models for Managers


Demonstrations for Session 12
Service Systems


Class notes
PowerPoint Slides:
   2000-4 or 2007+
Excel Solution:
   2000-4 or 2007+
Excel Example:
   2000-4 or 2007+
We have two demonstrations (2000-4 or 2007+) for this session:

Modeling Single Server Queues (2000-4) or (2007+)
[Sheet: Example1]

This example shows a simple way, using names, to evaluate the formulas we've seen. By assigning values to the names Lambda and Mu, we can create readable and understandable models of service systems.

(a)

For this illustration we suppose that customers arrive at a Poisson-distributed rate of 20 per hour. Service times average 2.6 minutes, and are exponentially distributed. How long is the average waiting line?

This is a straightforward application of the formulas of slide 11 of the class notes, or from the reading on Service Systems. We're looking for the average length of all lines, even when there is no line. Looking at the readings, we find that the quantity we want is given by

Formula for the average line length

(b)

Excluding empty lines, what is the average line length?

Now the formula we want is:

Formula for the average length f a non-empty line

The Poisson Distribution (2000-4) or (2007+)
[Sheet: Example2]

This example plots the shape of the Poisson distribution. It's intended to give you a feel for what the arrival distribution looks like. The plot shows the probability of n arrivals on or before time t. The four series shown depict the distributions of the arrival of the nth customer by time t, for n = 0 to 3.

The plot for n = 0 shows the probability of zero arrivals as a function of time. In other words, for t=5 say, it answers the question "What's the probability that we have no arrivals?" For high l, this plot moves in towards 0 — more probability is concentrated toward 0. This happens because of the first factor of the Poisson distribution, (lt)k, which for k = 0 becomes (lt)0. At t = 0, this is 00 = 1. The second factor, e-lt, then prevails.

For other values of n, the two factors compete. Since the first is a simple power, and the second is an exponential, the second always wins, eventually. Thus the shape of the distribution for n > 0 is humped, with the maximum occurring at greater t as n increases.

For more about my spreadsheet consulting and training services, visit SpreadsheetAce.com.

Last Modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2008 05:31:20 EDT

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