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f you use Excel to model businesses, business processes, or
business transactions, this course will change your life. You'll learn how to create tools for yourself that will amaze
even you. Unrestricted use of this material is available in two ways.
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| Order "Spreadsheet Models for Managers, on-line edition, one month" by credit card, for USD 69.95 each, using our secure server, and receive download instructions by return email. | Or order via Google Checkout. |
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Make your check payable to Chaco Canyon Consulting, for the amount indicated:
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To use the course software you'll need some other applications, which you very probably already have. By placing your order, you're confirming that you have the software you need, as described on this site.
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This example shows a simple way, using names, to evaluate the formulas we've seen. By assigning values to the names Lambda and Mu, we can create readable and understandable models of service systems.
For this illustration we suppose that customers arrive at a Poisson-distributed rate of 20 per hour. Service times average 2.6 minutes, and are exponentially distributed. How long is the average waiting line?
This is a straightforward application of the formulas of slide 11 of the class notes, or from the reading on Service Systems. We're looking for the average length of all lines, even when there is no line. Looking at the readings, we find that the quantity we want is given by
This example plots the shape of the Poisson distribution. It's intended to give you a feel for what the arrival distribution looks like. The plot shows the probability of n arrivals on or before time t. The four series shown depict the distributions of the arrival of the nth customer by time t, for n = 0 to 3.
The plot for n = 0 shows the probability of zero arrivals as a function of time. In other words, for t=5 say, it answers the question "What's the probability that we have no arrivals?" For high l, this plot moves in towards 0 — more probability is concentrated toward 0. This happens because of the first factor of the Poisson distribution, (lt)k, which for k = 0 becomes (lt)0. At t = 0, this is 00 = 1. The second factor, e-lt, then prevails.
For other values of n, the two factors compete. Since the first is a simple power, and the second is an exponential, the second always wins, eventually. Thus the shape of the distribution for n > 0 is humped, with the maximum occurring at greater t as n increases.
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Last Modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2008 05:31:20 EDT